Field Note #126. On "Contrarian Lemmings"

"I could not understand the words bullish and bearish outside of their purely zoological consideration....

.... [They] are terms used by people who do not engage in practicing uncertainty, like the television commentators, or those who have no experience in handling risk.  

Alas, investors and businesses are not paid in probabilities; they are paid in dollars.  

Accordingly, it is not how likely an event is to happen that matters, it is how much is made when it happens that should be the consideration.  

How frequent the profit is irrelevant; it is the magnitude of the outcome that counts."  
(N. Taleb, Fooled by Randomness (2004), pp. 101-102) (emphasis added)

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